Global crude oil prices could climb back toward the highs seen earlier this year if geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate, according to June Goh, Senior Oil Market Analyst at Sparta Commodities.
In an exclusive interview with ANI, Goh said the recent recovery in Brent crude prices to around USD 80 per barrel reflects growing concerns over potential supply disruptions in the global energy market. She noted that the sustainability of the rally will largely depend on how the geopolitical situation evolves in the coming weeks.
According to Goh, the recent exchange of military strikes between the United States and Iran, coupled with Washington's decision to withdraw the 60-day waiver on Iranian oil sales, signals a significant escalation in tensions. She believes the market is closely monitoring developments, as any further deterioration could place additional upward pressure on oil prices.
"Unless we see another new memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed or a new stance from both President Donald Trump and Iran, I think it's going to continue for a little while," Goh said.
While declining to provide a specific price forecast, Goh emphasized that the current trend remains bullish if geopolitical risks continue to intensify. Markets, she explained, are highly sensitive to any developments that could disrupt crude oil production or transportation, particularly in the Middle East, which remains a key supplier of global energy.
Despite the uncertainty, Goh pointed out that Asian refiners are now better equipped to manage supply disruptions than they were at the beginning of the conflict. Over recent years, many refiners have diversified their sources of crude imports, strengthened inventories, and improved supply chain resilience, reducing the immediate impact of regional disruptions.
The Middle East continues to play a critical role in global oil supply, and any prolonged instability could have far-reaching consequences for energy markets worldwide. Analysts believe traders will remain focused on diplomatic developments, military activity, and any policy changes affecting Iranian oil exports.
With geopolitical risks remaining elevated, the direction of crude oil prices in the coming weeks will depend largely on whether tensions ease through diplomatic engagement or continue to escalate, potentially tightening global supply and increasing volatility across energy markets.
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